« A single common Asian currency? | Main | Largest consumer credit database in the world! »

What's Deutsche Bank's philosophy in Growth?

Growthcenter The text at the end of this post is taken from Norbert Walter's speech at the American Chamber of Commerce, Cairo, when discussing prospect of Egypt. Egyptian economy is certainly not interesting (well, I don't deny that Egypt already has all the elements needed for economic growth. Why does't Egypt grow? I really dont' know) , but I guess Mr Walter was simply using it to illustrate DB's philosophy in what determin prosperity of a nation.

Combined with what I read from DB's other recent reports in relation to their Global Growth Centres 2020 project (which is similar to Goldman Sachs's BRIC), it is very clear that DB believes in two things (because investment is endogenous, and he mentioned enviroment for political correctness reasons):
(1) Demography: younger nations grow faster
(2) Trade: open economies grow faster

These seem not very surprsing arguments. It doesn't take a large team of DB economists to show this. I read the message differently though: I think what DB wants to say is NOT that these two factors are very important, but that the other factors (that he didn't mention) are NOT important. That is to say, don't care about other risks (political or financial),  go forward and invest in China and India.

What makes a country grow?  (by Norbert Walter, Deutsche Bank)

In DB Research's Global Growth Centres project, we have analysed the factors that determine a country's growth prospects.
First, in the medium to long term the dynamism of a society is decisively influenced by its demography: by the development, size and age structure of its population. In this respect, it seems that today the world is split in two parts: one part ageing, with population growth declining or even becoming negative, and another part still young, dynamic, vital. However, countries with dynamic population and labour force growth, but meagre savings and little or ill-allocated investment will not excel either.
Therefore, the second most important factor in explaining growth is investment. And it is not just the volume of investment which is important, but also how intelligently the money is invested, for which a mature financial system is crucial.
A third element that we identified as determining growth is openness. This means the willingness of a society to be open-minded, to be a learning society, to be open to the outside world. If a country does not allow outside challenges to influence local businesses, the educational system, even the cultural system, it will forego enormous opportunities as well. Competition is good for everyone, and openness is about welcoming competition.
A fourth factor is important not only to propel growth but to make it sustainable: Is the environment taken care of properly? Medium-term growth does not depend on whether you make the economy grow 5% or 7% next year. The question is whether - in the process of growth - you ruin the very basis of your future. And if your soil is damaged, if there is no fresh water left, if the air is polluted, at the end of the day your economy cannot flourish. So good governance to preserve the environment is a very important long-term growth factor.

Comments

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment