China's new Greater Leap Forward

Yesterday I criticize about India’s lip-service great leap forward. Today I find that some Chinese are making the same mistake.

According to a “China Modernization Report 2006” drawn up by the country’s Chinese Academy of Sciences:

“If the country can maintain its current 9 per cent rate of economic growth, it predicts the average income in China will rise to $1300 a month, about 10 times the current level.”

What a naïve assumption! No such a large country can maintain growth rates of 9 per cent per year for five decades. At the early stage, you grow fast because you are catching up, but once you reach the income level of Brazil, you will slow down unless you can innovate, which is not guaranteed and no one can predict.

Nevertheless, unlike Indians, Chinese not only dream, but also know very well they are dreaming.

“The authors admit the targets will be hard to achieve. He Chuanqi, who headed the research team, said that China's economic situation is 100 years behind the US and there is only a 6 per cent chance of his forecasts being realized.”