China’s conservative middle class blocks the way to democracy

Will the rise of middle class in China necessarily lead to relaxation of political control? In media discussions that I am aware of, this is at worse taken as a hope, and at best taken as granted, while for most of us the real question is simply “how long will it take?” 

China expert Professor Ken Lieberthal's view is very representative. When interviewd by New York Times, he said: "The spread of middle-class affluence and education across more of the Chinese population should eventually be a force for democratic liberalization, following the pattern of Taiwan and South Korea.'Am I a hundred percent sure I'm right? No, but that's the long-term bet I'd make' "

Jonathan Unger’s article “China’s conservative middle class” in the April issue of Far Eastern Economic Review, however, argues that Chinese middle class is actually a negative force in this process

“The educated middle class is elitist. Many of its members do not want democracy-that is, multiparty elections for the nation's top leaders. Nor did they want this at Tiananmen a decade and a half ago. They did not and do not want China's peasant majority to play a decisive hand in deciding who rules. Most of them hold the rural populace in disdain, and their fear is that the peasants would be swayed by demagogues and vote-buying. They believe that the rural populace is not yet ready to participate in elections. This is ironic, since villagers have been the only ones in China who have been allowed to cast secret ballots to elect their locality's leader.”

Jonathan Unger concludes that Chinese middle class is not the solution, but a barrier.

“The Chinese educated middle class has become a bulwark of the current regime. Summarizing a large survey of political attitudes in Beijing, a recent book by the political scientist Chen Jie concludes that, among all urban groups, "those who perceive themselves to belong to the middle class and who are government bureaucrats are more likely to support the incumbent authorities." Don't expect regime change or democratization any time soon. The rise of China's middle class blocks the way.”