What do surveys tell us on how to win Latin America’s soul?

As the Economist magazine features in “The battle for Latin America's soul”, Latin American countries one by one is falling into hands of populists who oppose to economic reforms. It thus becomes an urgent question how market economy and economic reform can win Latin America’s soul again?

Ugo Panizza and Monica Yanez from the Inter-American Development Bank recently published a paper titled “Why are Latin Americans so unhappy about reforms?” in which they looked into the  Latinobarometro survey, which was conducted yearly in Latin American countries since 1996, for answers.

They use the opinion surveys to document discontent with the pro-market reforms. They explore  four possible sets of explanations for this discontent: (i) a general drift of the populace’s political views to the left; (ii) an increase in political activism by those who oppose reforms; (iii) a decline in the people’s trust of political actors; and (iv) the economic crisis.

What they find  is that the macroeconomic situation plays an important role in explaining the dissatisfaction with the reform process, while the other factors are not important. 

Detailed research of the survey data show that even if in 1997 100% of people belong to the center right, while in 2002 100% of them convert to extremist left, the support for reform will only go down by 9%. This means that even such an extreme assumption of drift to the left can only explain one third of the actual drop in support for reforms.

The survey results also show that increasing political activism of the leftists or decline in the trust of political actors cannot explain the drop in support for reforms

The single most important factor is the economy. Drop of GDP growth by one percentage point can reduce support for reforms by 1.1%. In the case of Argentina, growth rate dropped by 21 percentage points  between 1997 and 2002, which would predict a drop in support for privatization equivalent  to 23 percentage point.

In Latin America, countries experiencing crisis usually fall into vicious cycle.  When the economy performs badly or experiences a crisis, it becomes much easier for populists to get into power and halt economic reforms. Without reforms the country cannot gain real competiveness internationally, and the political situation becomes self-reinforcing as the economy deteriorate further (sometimes several years can be saved with high oil price, but then the pain will be felt harder when oil price drops).

Economic and employment growth is the only criteria voters use to evaluate reforms, and they usually don’t give you second chance. Reformists need to think more about the stability consequence of the reforms they propose, because “one strike, you are out”. Better do it slowly but safely.

Reference:

Why are Latin Americans unhappy about reforms?

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Two new studies show why some people are more attractive for members of the opposite sex than others.

The University of Florida, Florida State University found that physically attractive people almost instantly attract the attention of the interlocutor, sobesednitsy with them, literally, it is difficult to make eye. This conclusion was reached by a series of psychological experiments, which were determined by the people who believe in sending the first seconds after the acquaintance. Here, a curious feature: single, unmarried experimental preferred to look at the guys, beauty opposite sex, and family, people most often by representatives of their sex.

The authors believe that this feature developed a behavior as a result of the evolution: a man trying to find a decent pair to acquire offspring. If this is resolved, he wondered potential rivals. Detailed information about this magazine will be published Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

In turn, a joint study of the Rockefeller University, Rockefeller University and Duke University, Duke University in North Carolina revealed that women are perceived differently by men smell. During experiments studied the perception of women one of the ingredients of male pheromone-androstenona smell, which is contained in urine or sweat.

The results were startling: women are part of this repugnant odor, and the other part is very attractive, resembling the smell of vanilla, and the third group have not felt any smell. The authors argue that the reason is that the differences in the receptor responsible for the olfactory system, from different people are different.

It has long been proven that mammals (including human) odor is one way of attracting the attention of representatives of the opposite sex. A detailed article about the journal Nature will publish.