Deutsche Bank’s take of China, India, Brazil and Mexico: Reports

Below I put together a collection of country research reports produced by Deutsche Bank Research, on several important emerging economies. Let's see what are Deutsche Bank's take of Goldman Sachs's BRICs.

China 2020: challenges ahead (PDF file)
China should be able to achieve high growth for another decade, moving its GDP above that of most industrial countries. Challenges however include a fragile banking sector, rising unemployment, large government debt, and corruption within the one-party political system.

India rising: a medium-term perspective (PDF file)
GDP per capita will double in 2020. Favorable demographics, increasing investment in education and infrastructure and further integration with the world economy are the factors behind DB’s projections. IT-related services, textiles, and the auto-ancillary industry and pharmaceuticals are expected to gain dynamism given India’s comparative advantage.

Brazil: O pais do futuro? (PDF file)
Grow at an average of 3.3% year. Competing against China, Brazil is likely to maintain its position in niche high-tech sectors where it has a competitive advantage. Increased Chinese demand for commodities will provide Brazil with an opportunity to move up the value chain in commodity-related sectors.

Mexico 2020: Tequila sunrise (PDF file)
Geographic closeness to the US gives it an unique advantage. There is fair chance that Mexico’s industrial profile will make a successful transition from low value-added to more sophisticated products.

Comments

[China Law Blog]

Gosh, I was all excited about the DB economic report and all set to do my own post on it until I noticed it is from 2002. China changes so much every year, I do not think even a 2004 report would be of much value. I generally agree with the conclusions of the 2002 report, but too much has changed (mostly for the better) to place much stock in it now.

[R-Squared]

sorry for forgetting to mention the date of the reports. The reports are part of the bigger effort of DB's 2020 growth centers projects (similar to Morgan Stanley's BRIC).
Yes, China is changing every year, so far mostly for the better. It surprises most people because it is hard to explain how the inefficient bureacratic system can tap talents nationwide to the top decision-making body, and makes relatively few big mistakes strategically.
One explanation is that it is simply luck, and you will run out of luck one day and no one can escape this fate unless you can reform before the time runs out.

[bx]

Its not luck, its greed.

People want to be successful, being in the top decision-making body is a success.

Its kind of like my Algorithms class, greedy algorithms rarely give you the top solution to a problem all of the time, but they come damn close.

[R-Squared]

Thanks, bx.
But then it drives me to think that why incumbents already on the top want to share top positions with other smart people. There are two ways you can go to and stay on the top. First, you are one of the smartest guys. Second, you maneuver to knock other smart people out (note that this doesn't require you to be smart, it require you to be as dirty as possible.