It is more profitable to lend to “priority sector” in India?

According to a report in Indian Times, Chennai-headquartered Indian Bank is making very good profits in so-called “priority sector”(agriculture, backward areas, women-owned businesses, etc), to which other banks are willing to lend only when forced to by the government.  According to another report in Hindu Business Line,  many banks actually have to buy loans from public sector banks in order to meet the government-set target of priority sector lending.

Thus the news sounds too good for me to believe ( I checked my calendar and today is not April the First). The report doesn’t give details on how they manage to do it, but I think we definitely need to learn from them if it is true.

“At a time when most banks are fighting for market share in corporate/SME business, Chennai-headquartered Indian Bank is betting big on priority sector lending.  Against the mandated 40%, this bank’s priority sector portfolio accounts for 51% of its advances. “Our experience of lending to priority sector has been good. Non-performing assets (NPAs) in agriculture, for instance, account for less than 2% of that portfolio. The average net interest margin (NIM) is around 4% which is much higher than what we would get by lending to corporates,” says KC Chakrabarty, the bank’s CMD.”

How do they do it? If any readers know about articles about the experience of Indian Bank's lending to priority sector, please let me know. I'd like to look into it.

Indian state-owned banks introduce performance-linked incentive packages for employees: the true story

According to a report in today’s Business Standard, India’s finance ministry decided on a reform plan to improve efficiency in state-owned banking sector. In the plan, not only the chairmen and executive directors but also ordinary employees are entitled to  performance-linked incentive packages.

“Heads of 29 public sector banks are set to get a performance-linked annual incentive package. Besides, all of them will get a lumpsum ex-gratia payment on retirement, depending on the number of years they put in as directors on bank boards.  Down the line, close to 800,000 employees in the public sector banking industry, too, will get incentives, based on their performance in five key areas.”

Five parameters are considered to determine the size of annual bonus,  which includes “credit growth, deposit mobilization, quality of assets, and recovery of non-performing assets.” (The report mentions only four parameters though).

I don’t think such design can help achieve the efficiency goal.

First of all, credit growth and deposit mobilization has nothing to do with efficiency; to the contrary, for India, faster credit growth and deposit mobilization  in state-owned banks actually reduce financial stability and crowd out efficient investment (as state-owned banks typically use the deposits to purchase government bonds instead of to invest in good projects).

Secondly, the “incentive” package is not linked to individuals’ performance but the performance of the whole bank. No employees will work hard to improve quality of assets or to recover non-performing loans, because (1) if he works hard, his colleagues in all branches across India can free-ride on the results as well (2) if he doesn’t work hard, he can still receive bonus pay so long as his colleagues work hard (3) knowing this, no one work hard.

There are restrictions on the total size of the incentive package: “The maximum amount a bank can pay to employees through this route will be capped at 1 per cent of a bank’s profit after tax (PAT).”  Nevertheless, no details are given regarding what fractions of this 1 per cent will be allocated to ordinary employees. Theoretically, all of them may be allocated to the CEO, which did happen in many corrupted countries when they introduced so-called “employee” incentive package. As a matter of fact, I also notice that: “Financial incentives given to chairmen and executive directors will be outside the cap (1 per cent of PAT) applicable to bank employees.”  Ha, I caught you!

I speculate that the plan is drawn up simply for the purpose of legally tunneling money from the state treasury to chairmen and executive directors of state-owned banks.

China’s non-performing loan ratio down to 8.9 pct?

China's major commercial banks NPL ratio 8.9 pct at end-2005
SHANGHAI (AFX) - China's banking regulatory agency said the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of major commercial banks fell to 8.9 pct as of the end of 2005, or 4.3 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year.

I don’t believe in this number at all; there is no way that the non-performing loan ratio is so low. But I trust that the non-performing loan ratio is indeed going down, as a result of transfer of bad loans to asset management companies, huge cash injections by the government, large retained profits, and current economic boom.

Raghuram Rajan on Chinese financial sector reform

Related to IMF China mission chief's remarks on Chinese reform priorities, Raghuram Rajan also made similar statements one week earlier (Jan 8, 2006) at the American Economic Association (AEA) meetings.

The title of the speech is "Financial system reform and global current account imbalances". The title is not about China, but the whole speech is centered on China's financial sector reform. As a matter of fact, AEA later invited Dr.Rajan to, based on his speech, co-write a policy article with former IMF China mission chief Eswar Prasad, titled "Modernizing China's growth paradigm", to be published in May issued of American Economic Review. Looking forward to reading it.

Some background reading:
(1) Raghuram Rajan: "China's Financial-Sector Challenge", at Financial Times (May 10, 2005)
(2) Eswar Prasad: "Next Step for China: Why financial sector reform is a crucial element of a long-term growth strategy", Finance & Development (September 2005 issue)

By the way, Dr.Rajan was invited by Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (a government agency in charge of economic reforms) to make the same speech to Chinese officials in July 2005. Chinese are keen in hearing different opinions, however harsh they may be.

I am not that lucky. Since some time ago I have not been able to post any comments on an Indian economy blog. Maybe I shouldn't have criticized India for her mounting government debt. I am still reading their blog though, because I find a lot useful information in it. Why reject information?

Was there a corporate governance failure in Asian financial crisis?

Till these days, I am still not very sure whether the largest problem in Asian financial crisis is corporate governance failure. If the goal of corporate governance is to maximize shareholders' profits, then I think we had very good corporate governance back then.  The losers in Asian financial crisis were creditors, depositors, and taxpayers, none of them are whom corporate governance is supposed to protect. So it was more a government failure, as it is the government's job to protect taxpayers and creditors.

Let’s not confuse between corporate governance and corporate operation. For example, below I cite some statement by ADB.  They seem to be blaming everything on “corporate governance”, but they are actually talking about financing decisions, which is about how a corporation is operated.

“The high level of nonperforming loans among banks and the over-reliance of the corporate sector on them reflect both weak governance and the lack of alternative financing sources to banks.”

Well, how could choice of capital structure be directly related to corporate governance?? We can call it a bad finance decision in hindsight, but  at that point in time, when short-term debt was cheap, it was absolutely in the interest of shareholders to choose such capital structure.  Mismatch of maturity and currency structure in borrowing was key in bringing down Asian corporations. But this is about risk management, not corporate governance.

Cronyism lending is certainly bad. But from the perspective of shareholder in the borrower firm, it is good corporate governance that the firm borrows from connected banks at favorable terms, because it maximizes the profit of shareholders in the borrower firm, although to less extent for minority shareholders.

Even shareholders in the bank benefit, given that depositors, and ultimately taxpayers (when government bails out failed banks)  bear the cost of banking failure, while shareholders may well enjoy higher return had the banks not failed.

If we establish that corporate governance is about the interest of shareholders, then Asian financial crisis is a state failure, not a market failure created by the corporate sector.  The reason why minority shareholders are willing to participate is exactly that they expect they can still extract rents from other parties even after expropriated by the majority shareholders. Thus the greatest problem is transfer of wealth from consumers, potential competitors etc to the listed companies.  And even if the corporate governance is perfect, this benefit transfer will continue, because it is to the interest of shareholders to use political connection to gain benefit for the firm. When corporate governance is weak,  majority shareholders get larger share of the pie, but minority shareholder also benefit, though to lesser extent, otherwise they wouldn’t  have participated in the first place.

If anything about corporate governance has to be done at all, it is about the corporate governance  of banks and financial institutions, not the non-financial corporate sectors. I however won’t call this corporate governance reform, because such reform is about better protection of depositors and taxpayers, who are not shareholders.

For the corporate sector, the problem is  more about the risk management technique. I am sure controlling shareholders have best incentive to adopt good risk management, if they know that corporate failure may trigger nation-wide crisis and no one (including themselves) can escape. I still have strong belief that no incumbent would try to sink their own boats even when they have their own life boats. You still lose a lot, although less than the costs incurred by minority shareholders. It is common knowledge that, when the economy is in turmoil, political powers are more likely to change hands, and no incumbent will like to see it happens, let alone creating it on purpose. The crisis was unexpected for them too.

Who lose when foreign banks enter?

It is not clear whether the entry of foreign banks will benefit local small businesses that are previously underserved by domestic banks. Foreign banks certainly will bring competition to the market which should improve allocation of credits, but as new entrants it is also easier for them to focus on small number of big and very profitable corporations, without stretching too much to reach numerous small businesses. 

But one thing is clear:  connected firms won’t benefit from foreign banks. Foreign banks don’t care whether you are nephew of Suharto!

Mariassunta Giannetti (Stockholm School of Economics) and Steven Ongena (Tilburg University) assess the credit conditions in Eastern Euroopean countries after entry of foreign banks. They find that, one the one hand, small firms benefit less than large firms, but they do benefit; on the other hand, those firms set up in the early stage of economic transitions, presumably by those most connected red barons, are absolute losers facing  the new landscape of banking sector.

Financial Integration and Entrepreneurial Activity: Evidence from Foreign Bank Entry in Emerging Markets    
An extensive empirical literature has documented the positive growth effects of equity market liberalization. However, this line of research ignores the impact of financial integration on a category of firms crucial for economic development, i.e. the small entrepreneurial firms. This paper aims to fill this void. We employ a large panel containing almost 60,000 firm–year observations on listed and unlisted companies in Eastern European economies to assess the differential impact of foreign bank lending on firm growth and financing. Foreign lending stimulates growth in firm sales, assets, and leverage, but the effect is dampened for small firms. The biggest losers from foreign bank entry however appear to be businesses that can be identified as connected to the government or domestic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that foreign banks can help mitigate connected lending problems and improve capital allocation.

Why is India’s financial system less solvent than China’s?

First, I have to make it clear that, I am NOT saying that (1) India’s financial system is insolvent, or (2) China’s financial system is solvent. I am only arguing that India’s financial system is less solvent than China’s, i.e., you should worry about India too if you think China’s financial system is in big trouble.

There is this popular view that India is blessed by a sound and efficient financial system, while China will be troubled by the huge amount of non-performing loans sooner or later.

It is however not clear whether India’s or China’s financial system has greater amount of “non-performing assets”, because financial system is consisted of both the banking sector and the government public finance system.  Chinese banks have to assume some public finance roles and fiscal functions, while India parks all bad assets in the government’s public finance balance sheet. We thus need to take into account India’s bankrupt public finance system when we compare China and India’s financial systems.

In the early stage of China’s economic reform, in order to increase the efficiency of distributing resources, part of the government’s fiscal function was transferred to commerical banks that were spinned out from the planning-era mono-bank. Before the reform, there were no commercial banks, and planning commission of the central government was in charge of disbursing all investment funds.

Certainly state-owned banks are less efficient than private-sector banks, I don’t deny. But this move was an improvement of efficiency for public finance, which is also part of the financial system.  Later empirical studies show that state-owned banks distribute resources more efficiently than government agencies, partly because there are four state-owned bank of equal size operating nationally that are competing with each other.  Most of the non-performing loans were accumulated in this transition period. Argubaly, the other option at that time was to park these liabilities direclty in the government’s public finance balance sheet. This option is choosen by India.

In India, banks are not asked to assume these fiscal functions (burdens) as Chinese banks are, and thus the banks are much healthier. But we have to understand that bad "white elephant" projects are still there. They have to be financed by someone. They are financed by the government, directly. These "non-performing" liabilities don’ disappear, they are simply moved from the balance sheet of the banking sector to the balance sheet of the government’s public finance.  When an Indian PSU wants funding, the government borrows money and the liability is in the government’s balance sheet.  I don’t think PSU sector in any time soon will return large amount of money to the government, and I thus can assume that all the investment in PSUs by Indian government can be defined as “non-performing” if we think of the government as a “bank” that pursues profits

When we evaluate the health of India’s financial system, we have to evaluate the system as a whole, not only the banking system, but also the public finance system.  India’s public debt is more than 80% of its GDP. If Chinese government leverages its public debt to this level, she will have more than sufficient funds to write off all non-performing loans in state-owned banks. And it is legitimate for the government to do for she is the lender of last resort.  This is why depositors are still pouring more money into the system.  For India, the risk is in the balance sheet of the government, and IMF is her lender of last resort.

The reasons why India’s financial system is less solvent than China’s are that (1) when public finance and bank finance is combined, India’s balance sheet is more leveraged; (2) Chinese banks, although much less efficient than Indian banks, allocate resources better than Indian government; (3) India has a bigger public sector, more aggressive and less responsible fiscal policy;  (4) It is not clear whether IMF will bail out Indian government in a prompt fashion when she declares bankruptcy, while Chinese government will certainly bail out her banks as their is concensus that the banks have suffered for the government and it is time for paying back now that the government is flooded with tax revenues that are rising +20% yearly.

Note:   I don’t deny that China’s banking system also is in big trouble. How to improve efficiency of Chinese banks is an extremely difficult task.

"China hand" Jeffrey Williams to leave Shenzhen Development Bank (China's first bank controlled by foreign investors)

Breaking News: Jeffrey Williams will leave from his position as president of Shenzhen Development Bank (SDB).  SDB became the first Chinese bank controlled by foreigners after Newbridge Capital Group, a Fort Worth-based private-equity firm, acquired 18% of its shares in 2004. After that, Newbridge replaced the whole management and appointed Jeffrey Willams as president. Jeffrey Willams is the former CEO of Standard Chartered Bank in Tawain, and twenty years ago he openned Citibank's first mainland branch in Shenzhen. He is knowned in the industry as a China hand. In 1979, when he made his first trip to China and taught in Beijing University, he earneed the equivalent of $100 a month.

It is still unclear who will be Mr. Williams' new employer. Well, Citigroup recently acquired majority control of Guangdong Development Bank (GDB)- a much bigger player troubled by similar problems. President of GDB sounds a perfect position for Jeffrey Willams.

For NewBridge Capital's involvement in Shenzhen Development Bank, a Business Week article "The Great Bank Overhaul" provides a good review.

India people should stop hoarding gold: it is unproductive!

Indian people are the world’s largest consumers of gold. They possess $200 billion of it, equal to nearly half of the country’s bank deposits. By any definition, investment in gold is unproductive.  In the meantime, the country has saving rate and investment rate that is much lower than China; While the country is thirsty of finance, Indian banks put nearly 50% of depoisits in government bonds. Very unproductive!

According to a McKinsey report, Indian government has proposed to let Indians buy virtual, or “paper,” gold in denomination as low as $2. Savers can trade in it and get the current market value of whatever quantity they had bought. The goal is to let banks make loans based on their gold deposits, as they now do with cash deposits.

Goldman Sachs acquires stake in China's largest bank

Goldman Group to Invest in Chinese Bank
SHANGHAI, Friday, Jan. 27 - An investment group that includes Goldman Sachs, Allianz of Germany and the American Express Company is expected to announce Friday that it will pay about $3.8 billion for a 10 percent stake in the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China’s largest government-owned bank, according to people close to the deal.

So far, among the four largest banks in China, only the Agriculture Bank hasn't recieved any foreign investment. Foreign banks typically put in $ 3 billion to acquire 10% non-controlling stake. To put the size into perspective, $ 3 billion can certainly get you full control of ICICI bank in India, which is the largest private sector bank.

Let's take a count of foreign banks' latest investments in China: 

Citigroup put $ 3 billion into Guangdong Development Bank (85% share) -- pending (exceptionally difficult) regulatory approval
Bank of America put $3 billion into China Construction Bank (non-controlling)
Royal Bank Of Scotland and Merrill Lynch put 3$ billion into Bank of China (non-controlling)
Temasek Holdings willing to put $4 billion into Bank of China (non-controlling)
..........

Finally, I recommend to you a very good review article published by USA today: Only the bravest of bankers boldly go into China