China offers to build 1 M low-cost houses.....for Filipinos though

I was at first very excited when reading the title of the news: “China offers to build 1 M low-cost houses”. Chinese government is starting to fulfill its promise to help low-income people! I thought.

As I read on, however, to my disppointment, I discovered that the houses will be built in Filipinos in Philippines.

I am not saying that China should not share the responsibility in helping poor countries, but come on, there are more people back home in China who are in greater need of housing, and China after all is not a rich country.

Shouldn’t China solve the domestic problems first? Shouldn’t China treat its own citizens well first?

But then I remember something:

Oil reserve, offshore Philippines in China sea!

Then it could be profitable deal.

Private Sector Development is good for the environment: new data from World Bank’s China office

Private sector and privatization is always blamed for the degradation of the environment. Some self-proclaimed “environmentalists” always insist that greed and evilness is deeply rooted in the heart of  private sector and big “bad” corporations, and only the angel, i.e. the government, can and always benevolently acts as the savior of the earth.

Let’s set aside for a moment the debate on who (private sector or the government) are more greedy (there are certainly more government corruptions than corporate scandals, don't you agree?), and see some hard data first.

The World Bank’s survey results recently released show that, within China, wherever private sector prospers, more efforts are exerted to improve on environmental standards, and residents enjoy not only higher wage but also cleaner air and more green space. When state-owned firms dominate, the reverse happens.

The reason is quite simply: private sector development increases government’s tax revenue, which is necessary (although not sufficient) for the conduction of environmental projects. We always hesitate to talk about money when it comes to environmental protection. How dare we introduce the sinful money into the purest domain of human race: environmental protection?  We sometimes think.

But the cold truth is that: to carry out environment-improving projects, you need money more than lip services. As Dan Harris in the China Law Blog rightly points out: “Copenhagen can afford a state of the art sewage system; Freetown, Siera Leone cannot.”

Certainly private sector development is not a sufficient condition for better environment, but we do know that state-owned firms are always the worse polluters.

The World Bank’s China country office surveys 12,400 firms in 120 Chinese cities. It is found that private sector development varies across China. In Wenzhou and Jiaxing, 99% of the firms are privately owned, while in the old Northeastern rust belt, only 60%. The cross-city variation of private sector development is then closely associated with local environmental standards.

According to an article written by David Dollar (World Bank's China country director) for the Newsweek:

“A good investment climate for firms also goes hand in hand with a good environment for people. As expected, cities with better investment climates tend to have higher wages (averaging $3,000 to $4,000 a year in coastal cities, versus $1,000 in the interior), less unemployment, lower infant mortality and higher education spending.

But surprisingly, they also score higher on environmental measures such as green space per capita, clean-air days per year and percent of water discharge that is treated. For example, cities like Weihai, Qingdao, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Fuzhou all score very highly in terms of business climate, and all treat 97 percent or more of their industrial waste water, with Weihai treating a perfect 100 percent.The opposite is also true. The average waste water treatment rate for cities with poor investment environments was about 78 percent. Why is this so? Cities with poor investment climates tend to have industry dominated by state firms, which often are the worst polluters.”

In an article "China's Pearl River Smells, But the Mayor insists to Swim in it" I posted in this Bulletin some time ago, I reports on the improved river water quality in Guangzhou, a southern Chinese boom town.  An American teacher living in that city comments with his/her first hand experience that the river still smells badly. It is very true that the river still smells. But five years ago, it stunk and it could hardly be called a river. And the river’s water quality is still much better than other Chinese cities.

Why? The reason is very simple. Guangzhou is one of the richest cities in China, and government tax revenue grows at 40% a year, and residents who are now better off financially are very sensitive to the environments surrounding them. Everything comes naturally after a country or a city gets richer.  London stunk too in the 19th  century.

Without private sector development, there certainly will be no greed, no pollution, because the earth will become a large zoo with all human beings living primitive lives. Note that these do not include some half-hearted prominent environmentalists residing in rich countries. They will still stay in New York, complaining about air pollution, and telling media how much they love Africa, as their zoo.

Finally, I have to emphasize that, to re-forest the earth, you need to plant more trees instead of consuming less paper. Research shows that the average American consumes the equivalent of one mature tree every year. This means that, however hard you try, you cannot save more than one tree even if you restrain from using any paper-related products.  But when you use less greeting cards, those people in developing countries who make these cards lose their jobs. I am quite curious why we are making so much fuss about sending paper Christmas cards. Isn’t it more efficient to donate some money to plant more trees instead of going through so many hassles to save one tree every five years?  No.... then a lot of lobby groups will lose their jobs. It is politics, stupid.

Note: I don’t think these “environmentalists” are true environmentalist. To qualify as a true environmentalist, you have to care about lives of the local people more than your daily media coverage. In the case of some labor unions, don’t disguise your own agenda as “helping poor people in developing countries”. If you truly want to help out, let the most capable and hardworking people from the developing countries compete with you and take your job.  And when you say you hate the pollution in New York and like to turn it into Amazon jungle, you must have a concrete plan to move to live in Amazon jungle, and let the local Brazilians to move here to occupy your apartments. Isn’t it a perfect exchange program: you want natural forest, and they want higher living standard. Kenyans are not stupid either, and they don’t want to live in a zoo watched by you, no matter how you portrait nomad life as a perfect integration with the environment. Enjoy it by yourself if you like it.

Deutsche Bank’s take of China, India, Brazil and Mexico: Reports

Below I put together a collection of country research reports produced by Deutsche Bank Research, on several important emerging economies. Let's see what are Deutsche Bank's take of Goldman Sachs's BRICs.

China 2020: challenges ahead (PDF file)
China should be able to achieve high growth for another decade, moving its GDP above that of most industrial countries. Challenges however include a fragile banking sector, rising unemployment, large government debt, and corruption within the one-party political system.

India rising: a medium-term perspective (PDF file)
GDP per capita will double in 2020. Favorable demographics, increasing investment in education and infrastructure and further integration with the world economy are the factors behind DB’s projections. IT-related services, textiles, and the auto-ancillary industry and pharmaceuticals are expected to gain dynamism given India’s comparative advantage.

Brazil: O pais do futuro? (PDF file)
Grow at an average of 3.3% year. Competing against China, Brazil is likely to maintain its position in niche high-tech sectors where it has a competitive advantage. Increased Chinese demand for commodities will provide Brazil with an opportunity to move up the value chain in commodity-related sectors.

Mexico 2020: Tequila sunrise (PDF file)
Geographic closeness to the US gives it an unique advantage. There is fair chance that Mexico’s industrial profile will make a successful transition from low value-added to more sophisticated products.

CLSA: China manufacturing price will have to rise

According to CLSA’s latest Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), Chinese manufacturing firms are having a very good time:  production up, employment up,  incoming business up, new export orders up, backlogs of work up, stock of inventory down. China is (over) heating!

The overall effect for foreigners however is that consumer price and interest rate will move up inevitably in the next several months. I am not sure whether this will continue for ever; based on estimated capacity of power plants and steel mills under construction, in 2007 both electricity and steel capacity in China will exceed demand (currently there is a shortage of both) and the trend of rising input costs is likely to slow down.

According to the CLSA report:

“Production rose for a sixth consecutive month in May, at a rate close to April’s eleven-month high. Output was led higher by increased volumes of incoming new business, which rose at the strongest rate in thirteen months. New order gains were driven by robust demand from both domestic and foreign clients. Growth of new export orders accelerated to the sharpest for twelve months during May.

     Backlogs of work rose for the third consecutive month, with the rate of growth picking up to the sharpest since last December. A number of firms met increased sales from warehouse inventory, contributing to further contraction in stocks of finished goods.

     Latest data highlighted a rise in employment at Chinese manufacturing firms for the second month running in May, though the rate of hiring remained only marginal.

     The quantity of inputs purchased by firms continued to rise in May, with the rate of growth quickening for the fourth straight month to its strongest since April 2005. This contributed to a further expansion of pre-production inventories. Supplier lead times were found to have lengthened slightly for the fourth consecutive month in May, reflecting stronger demand for inputs.

     The rate of input price inflation in the Chinese manufacturing economy surged from April’s already strong pace to a fourteen-month high in May, as 44% of panellists signalled a rise in their average purchase costs since the previous month. Firms widely reported higher prices paid for oil and related products, as well as chemicals and metals.      In order to offset rapidly rising input costs, manufacturers raised their charges again in May. The rate of output price inflation was robust and the sharpest since March 2005, but was still well below that of input prices, reflecting intense competition in a number of markets. This suggests a further squeeze of profit margins.”

Go head, learn Mandarin? There is no need.

The TIME magazine says that now we need to start learning Chinese Mandarin, because “ to an extent, this is a case of history repeating itself—with a twist. Just as Americans started studying Japanese in droves in the 1980s, when Japan's economy was ascendant, so today, as China rises, the world is embracing Mandarin.”

But in any case, Japanese businessmen speak English if they do business with foreigners and it takes a lot of patience for them to wait for you to practice your basic and broken Japanese in the meeting room in a serious negotiation. Japanese may not speak English very fluently, but communication and business can already be done at that level . If it is a very important billion dollar deal, go hire a first-class translator. Language, friction it certainly is, is never a formidable barrier for doing business.

Some basic greetings and conversation skills may be needed, as TIME ends the article by quoting someone who is practicing Chinese: "But we weren't sent here by the company. We're drinking buddies, and decided to do something more constructive with our time than guzzling beer." Indeed, to make your life less boring when meeting Chinese businessmen and on a business trip, this is useful.

But in any case speaking Mandarin (unless you really master the language at decent level) is torture for both you and people on the other side of the negotiation table. True, in South Korea, 160,000 high school and university students are studying the Chinese language, but they are moving to China and many plan to settle there; this is a different story.

Nevertheless, speaking a little bit (not neccesarily much) local language helps you make friends and brings you unexpected favors. According to TIME's Beijing correspondant Susan Jakes:

"The more boldly I stammered through basic conversations, the more people seemed to attach themselves to me as unofficial teachers. In Beijing, a woman once invited me home for dumplings when I said "excuse me" after bumping into her on a crowded subway. A Harbin cop took me driving in his new Mercedes, and a couple I met in line at a bank included me in their family bowling nights. Each invitation was an opportunity to make mistakes and collect new words: "home cooking," "special privilege," "gutter ball." "

China or India, who’s got sweatshops?

China is known for its labor-intensive low-wage manufacturing. But according to Mercer Human Resource Consulting: software engineers, sales staff, financial analysts and factory workers all earn more in China than India.

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-CHINA (in British Sterling)
Project manager: £12,173
Software engineer: £6,998
Accountant: £4,677
Sales rep: £2,649
Production worker: £1,214

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-INDIA (in British Sterling)
Project manager: £5,220
Software engineer: £5,344
Accountant: £2,956
Sales rep: £2,464
Production worker: £964

According to a report in The Australian, in the newly-completed Toyota factory in Guangzhou, China, workers, 3500 of them, are paid about $2.70 an hour. Note that these are assembly-line workers, not IIT-educated genius.

Labor regulations never get you higher pay; Market foreces and your own skills do!

Is Nicholas Kristof an idiot? the "******* vs. Netizens" case

Nicholas Kristof, op-ed columnist of New York Times, publishes an article today describing how he tests the limits of the Internet in China.

He started several blogs in Chinese internet service provider, and find that however political sensitive words he includes in the blogs are not deleted, but are just replaced by ******. He thus claims it to be a victory of Netizens, that Internet police are not able to control numerous blogs mushrooming in China.

Yes, Nicholas, you are very smart that you find this loophole in the system.

But everyone knows it too, just no one else is stupid enough to disclose it publicly.

Everyone, except you, understands that the loophole will be closed once it is disclosed publicly.

Provision of  Internet service, including hosting of blogs, is a very competitive business in China. In order to attract users, most providers will always “walk on the edge of the law” and try to create as little inconvenience to users as possible.

This includes, not removing “sensitive words” as the state censors require; instead, they simply replace the words with ******.  Technically, by doing this, Internet service providers violate the law, but the Internet police don’t bother to interrupt. I guess there is implicit agreement between them: Internet police want a quite life; Internet service providers want profit; Thus, police will leave service providers alone unless big troubles are made that humiliate the Internet police.

As a by product, Chinese netizens get a little bit more freedom than the law provides.

This will be soon gone, after Nicholas Kristof’s stupid move; typically the state will feel very embarrassed and feel publicly humiliated (in New York Times!), and then the Internet police will be reprimanded. And boy, who are the ultimate victims? The netizens!!

I still don’t understand why Nicholas Kristof publicizes this. To raise awareness? I guess everyone already knows that Chinese government censors Internet, and what Nicholas is telling us is no big news. Even when you want to raise awareness, there are many better ways that are much better than publicizing a loophole that has been benefiting Chinese netizens!

Certainly, you will say that the ultimate blame should be the government, and Kristof is only the little boy who tells everyone the Emperor has no clothes.

But why do we care whether the Emperor dresses or not!

See Kristof's op-ed article: "In China it's ******** vs. Netizens"
(Sorry I copy this NYT article without permissoin, but considering the great harm he's done to one hundred million Chinese netizens, I think Nicholas should allow me to violate his copyright for several days as a compensation)

Update: So far the two "test blogs" are yet to be closed down.

Continue reading "Is Nicholas Kristof an idiot? the "******* vs. Netizens" case" »

Should journalist use lies to fight lies? The Apple “slave” labor case

Apple is running into trouble recently. A recent U.K. newspaper report claims that workers at a Chinese iPod factory were working long hours, for little pay, and in "slave conditions". They were said to have been earning $50 a month (or about $1.60 a day) while working 15-hour shifts. The reporters visited two plants in the crowded country, one close to Shanghai and the other near Hong Kong. One, described as iPod City, was said to have 200,000 workers who lived in dormitories on the site.

Labor compensation is really terrible in China, but I don’t think these journalist should use lies to fight lies.

First, in the two locations where the journalist claim they investigate (I guess one in Kunshan and the other in Shenzhen), it is impossible to hire assembly workers at $50 /month. It is just impossible, not because the employers are benevolent, but because factories next doors will recruit away all you workers at the prevailing market price if you offer only $ 50/month.

Reading the report  carefully (I guess most readers will only remember the headline numbers they throw out instead of finishing the whole report),  however, you will find that $50/month is not the wage, but the net saving after deducting expenses as calucauted by the journalists. Should we say that some American workers are paid zero dollars/month because they rarely save money?

Interestingly, the real monthly salary number (about $100 /month) obtained by the journalists (I guess the number should be real, as journalists do not have incentive to over-report the number) meets the minimum wage requirement, which many labor activists believe to be fair but don't think are actively enforced! The report unexpectedly provides evidence that minimum wage law in China does have teeth!

$100 /month is small sum for British, but it is a lot of money in China. Why don’t the journalist make some attempt to put the number into perspective. In inland provinces, government employees (dream position for most local residents ) are paid $100/month.  $300/month is also three times what Indian workers can get.

Why don’t the journalist tell readers what are the alternative income these workers could get if they don’t have a job in the  factory?  It is a poor country, and $100 /month is exactly the same as the country’s GDP per capita. The average monthly British GDP/per capita is over $2800, will you call a British worker who are paid $2800/month a slave!!

Second, in the past five years, Apple sold 42 million i-Pods. If 200,000 workers are employed to produce i-pods, then each worker produced only 210 i-pods so far.  Don’t you think such productivity is ridiculously low. A Washington Post article reveals that the factory is not owned by Apple, but by a contract manufactures Hon Hai precision Industry, also known as Foxconn electronics Inc.  Foxconn does employ 200,000 workers, but Apple is only a client, and only small fraction of the 200,000 workforce work on i-pods.

I really don’t know why the journalists want to throw out a sensational number of "200,000 workers", and the so-called “iPod city” name, just to exploit the popularity of iPod brand name?  And “the 200,000 workers in one site” description also tries to get readers to have an impression that all 200,000 workers are fit into one dorm room!

I want to say to the journalist of Mail on Sunday (the U.K. newspaper that reports the story): 
The best weapon of journalists is fact and truth, if you degrade yourself to the same level of a lying regime, you bring shame to the whole journalist community!

Interestingly, Mail on Sunday doesn't put the report online. Are you fearing of sunshine?

Reference:
Sweatshop conditions at iPod factory reported
Apple eyes labor conditions at iPod plant

Update:

found that Perry Wu in the ChinaTechNews.com has the same views as mine, in his article "Hyperbolic Apple iPod factory woes"

Sun Bin recommends a blog post "A Chinese view of iPod City", which provides a nice summary of the event and coverage. Thanks.

China’s pollution and sweatshops revisited

Two recommended articles, both from New York Times:

(1) China’s burning of coal casts a global cloud

China’s increasing pollution due to use of coal in generating electricity  has become a global problem as the West Coast states of the U.S. also suffer from polluted dusts that can move thousands of miles across Pacific Ocean . At the end of the article, however, the reports also remind us that an average American still consumes more energy and is responsible for the release of 10 times as much carbon dioxide as the average Chinese, and thus it is still not time for finger-pointing.

(2) In praise of the maligned sweatshop

Nicholas Kristof tells us why students campaigning to boycott “sweatshops” in developing countries, however well-meaning they are,  are actually harming poor people badly, and why students should actually campaign  for more “sweatshops”.

Without sweatshops, poor people won’t be exploited. It is true, because they starve and die instead! which some self-righteous students don’t care about any way.

Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy’s solution to Chinese currency problem

Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy’s solution to the Yuan problem:

“...we propose the following compromise. First, China should implement in the next few months a 10 to 15 percent appreciation of the renminbi relative to the current value of the basket. This could be done either by a revaluation or by allowing market forces to push up the currency’s value. Such a “downpayment” would help to persuade external critics that China is serious about controlling its growing external imbalance. Second, China should widen substantially either the band around the central rate or the daily fluctuation limit. That would provide increased independence for monetary policy, allow scope for further renminbi appreciation and give China experience in managing increased flexibility. Third, to offset some of the contractionary effect of the renminbi appreciation, China should simultaneously implement fiscal expansion. Fourth, China should maintain most capital controls until its banks are further strengthened.

This would still require sizeable real appreciation of the renminbi later, with all the problems that such a phased adjustment entails. If speculative inflows resurge, the authorities would need to choose between an acceleration of renminbi appreciation and a temporary recourse to tighter controls on capital inflows. In the final stage of currency reform—when China’s banking system is more stable—China would float the currency and remove the remaining capital controls. Admittedly, this is not an elegant plan. But if it would break the existing logjam in addressing global payments imbalances, it merits consideration.”

see Goldstein and Lardy's full article in the Finanicla Times