Chicago economists produce a paper on how war in Iraq helps save Iraqi lives

Steven J. Davis, Kevin M. Murphy, and Robert H. Topel, three famous economics professors in the University of Chicago, publish a working paper on how war in Iraq may help save Iraqi lives. It is part of their ongoing academic project studying how to deal with “tyrants, rogue states and terrorists who threaten not only their own people but also others.”

Their analysis indicates that war and forcible regime change will yield large improvements in the economic well-being of most Iraqis relative to their prospects under the containment policy, and that the Iraqi death toll would likely be greater under containment.

“This conclusion follows from some basic observations.
First, the Iraqi economy was in terrible condition before the war, and it would have remained in a sorry state under the policy of containment.
Second, the regime of Saddam Hussein was an economic failure of tremendous proportions. The available evidence suggests that real income per capita fell by roughly 75 percent as a consequence of Saddam’s misrule. In addition, much of Iraq’s greatly diminished output was diverted to an oversized military, an apparatus of terror and repression and the relentless glorification of Saddam.
Third, the removal of sanctions, the expansion of petroleum exports, large-scale reconstruction aid, and the reintegration of Iraq’s economy into the world economy provide a strong basis for economic gains – even in a society with serious institutional weaknesses. If, over the course of a generation, Iraqis recover even half of the economic losses they suffered under Saddam Hussein, then they will be significantly better off in material terms as a consequence of forcible regime change.”

They emphasize that:

“Had containment remained in effect, the historical record suggests that premature Iraqi deaths would have continued indefinitely at the rate of 10,000 to 30,000 per year.”

The working paper can be located at:
War in Iraq versus Containment (longer version)
War in Iraq versus Containment (Shorter version)

Note: Professor Joseph Stiglitz disagrees with them and argues that the costs of war in Iraq could well exceed two trillion US Dollars, if U.S. troops are maintained in Iraq through 2015. See: "The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict"

Comments

[tequila]

I can't wait for their paper analyzing how Russia would have been better off remaining under Communism, given the rather ugly demographic trends going on in Russia under "democracy" nowadays.

[Ari]

This may be the stupidest research paper ever published. What immoral garbage.